Comments on: Why Chrome OS is the Future of Netbooks http://pathfindersoftware.com/2009/07/why-chrome-os-is-the-future-of-netbooks/ The Fastest Way to Launch Successful Software Thu, 19 Jan 2012 16:36:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Matt Nolker http://pathfindersoftware.com/2009/07/why-chrome-os-is-the-future-of-netbooks/#comment-9691 Matt Nolker Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:31:57 +0000 http://www.pathf.com/blogs/?p=3303#comment-9691 Good points Aron. I certainly don't think that Microsoft's OS monopoly is in serious danger on the traditional PC. XP or Windows 7 brings a whole host of capabilities, like DirectX, a huge library of device drivers, etc. However, netbooks don't have the same need for these capabilities as a typical workhorse desktop or laptop PC. And the Windows OS architecture has some drawbacks as well - software installation, as I pointed out, is either difficult or at least very inhibiting for many users. I think Chrome has more room to succeed than many expect in spaces like the netbook. That said, the only way Chrome make significant inroads in the overall OS marketshare is if netbook form factor begins to eclipse that of traditional PCs. I don't think that's out of the question, but it will be quite some time before it occurs (if at all). Good points Aron. I certainly don’t think that Microsoft’s OS monopoly is in serious danger on the traditional PC. XP or Windows 7 brings a whole host of capabilities, like DirectX, a huge library of device drivers, etc. However, netbooks don’t have the same need for these capabilities as a typical workhorse desktop or laptop PC. And the Windows OS architecture has some drawbacks as well – software installation, as I pointed out, is either difficult or at least very inhibiting for many users. I think Chrome has more room to succeed than many expect in spaces like the netbook. That said, the only way Chrome make significant inroads in the overall OS marketshare is if netbook form factor begins to eclipse that of traditional PCs. I don’t think that’s out of the question, but it will be quite some time before it occurs (if at all).

]]> By: Aron Pilhofer http://pathfindersoftware.com/2009/07/why-chrome-os-is-the-future-of-netbooks/#comment-9690 Aron Pilhofer Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:42:50 +0000 http://www.pathf.com/blogs/?p=3303#comment-9690 Maybe. I am doubtful, and here's why. Even 25% is a wildly optimistic number. After years of hearing "This is the year the Linux desktop takes off!" total desktop penetration remains anemic -- that's even with a really great desktop OS (Ubuntu) AND Dell offering an easy integration to Ubuntu. Maybe a small fraction of netbook owners will opt for Google OS, but 25%? No way. Not without a massive (and expensive) campaign from Google to educate people about Chrome and not without paying Dell and others to preload their OS. Even if that happens, you're still dealing with an almost microscopically small piece of Microsoft's business, and probably the least important piece at that. Now, you want to pick a fight with MS over the corporate desktop space, or the much larger home desktop space? Good luck. And even if Google wins a significant portion of the market, what have they truly won? The OS is going to be open source, and Google will have none of the advantages MS does in the Windows space. OS, Office -- that's Microsoft's home turf. MS can build a browser compliant version of MS Office that is good enough (and it is), and then what? What is the incentive to switch for the average user? What is the incentive to switch for the corporate CIO or CTO? My prediction is this: Chrome OS will get a lot of love from developers, and may even score small successes in niche markets (I agree that netbooks is the most likely). But without a massive, almost bet-the-company sized investment from Google, there's no way it goes beyond that. And even in these niche markets, I am doubtful you'll get to anything like 25%. Going to be fun to watch, though, no doubt. Maybe. I am doubtful, and here’s why. Even 25% is a wildly optimistic number. After years of hearing “This is the year the Linux desktop takes off!” total desktop penetration remains anemic — that’s even with a really great desktop OS (Ubuntu) AND Dell offering an easy integration to Ubuntu.

Maybe a small fraction of netbook owners will opt for Google OS, but 25%? No way. Not without a massive (and expensive) campaign from Google to educate people about Chrome and not without paying Dell and others to preload their OS.

Even if that happens, you’re still dealing with an almost microscopically small piece of Microsoft’s business, and probably the least important piece at that. Now, you want to pick a fight with MS over the corporate desktop space, or the much larger home desktop space? Good luck.

And even if Google wins a significant portion of the market, what have they truly won? The OS is going to be open source, and Google will have none of the advantages MS does in the Windows space. OS, Office — that’s Microsoft’s home turf. MS can build a browser compliant version of MS Office that is good enough (and it is), and then what? What is the incentive to switch for the average user? What is the incentive to switch for the corporate CIO or CTO?

My prediction is this: Chrome OS will get a lot of love from developers, and may even score small successes in niche markets (I agree that netbooks is the most likely). But without a massive, almost bet-the-company sized investment from Google, there’s no way it goes beyond that. And even in these niche markets, I am doubtful you’ll get to anything like 25%. Going to be fun to watch, though, no doubt.

]]> By: Chrome OS is the Future of Netbooks « Chrome OS News http://pathfindersoftware.com/2009/07/why-chrome-os-is-the-future-of-netbooks/#comment-9689 Chrome OS is the Future of Netbooks « Chrome OS News Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:53:53 +0000 http://www.pathf.com/blogs/?p=3303#comment-9689 [...] opinion Share and [...] [...] opinion Share and [...]

]]>